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Ruholamin Haqshanas
Author
Ruholamin Haqshanas
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The US stock and cryptocurrency markets could be overvalued following recent rallies, according to Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America (BofA).
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Hartnett warned of a potential “overshoot” if the S&P 500 approaches 6,666 points, which would be about 10% higher than its current level, suggesting a risky bubble formation in early 2025.
Data from Bloomberg shows that the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio has climbed to 5.3 times in 2024, nearing the record high of 5.5 observed during the tech bubble in March 2000.
Global Investors Exuberance Not Matching Stock Market Rise
While the stock market has experienced a substantial rise, investors have not yet shown signs of exuberance, according to BofA’s bull-and-bear indicator.
The S&P 500 has soared approximately 27% this year, marking its best performance since 2019. This surge is driven by enthusiasm surrounding AI and President-elect Donald Trump’s “America First” policies.
Hartnett also mentioned the impact of Trump’s crypto stance, which contributed to Bitcoin’s temporary spike above $100,000 this week.
With Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion, it now rivals the world’s 11th-largest economy.
Bitcoin Surge Fueled by FOMO
Bitcoin recently surpassed the $100,000 mark, reaching as high as $104,000. The surge is fueled by a mix of market euphoria and fear of missing out (FOMO), according to Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler.
In a statement shared with Cryptonews.com, Lienkha said this momentum could potentially push Bitcoin’s price to between $110,000 and $150,000 in the absence of negative external factors.
However, Lienkha noted that maintaining Bitcoin’s price below $100,000 without substantial market changes seems unlikely, given the current global optimism in equity markets.
“Sustaining prices below $100,000 would likely require significant market shifts, such as increased pessimism in equity markets, which is an improbable scenario,” he wrote. “Instead, global equity markets are experiencing a robust Christmas rally, with new all-time highs recorded in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Germany’s DAX index.”
The correlation of Bitcoin with US stock indices is strong, suggesting that any downturn in equities could affect Bitcoin prices.
Such sychronization could emerge early next year, according to Lienkha, influenced by retail sentiment, which remains a critical driver of crypto fluctuations.
The current enthusiasm around altcoins, indicative of an “alt-season,” underscores the retail-driven nature of the latter stages of this bull run.
Despite the bullish momentum, Lienkha cautions that signs point toward the end of this short-term cycle. Adding that a significant market correction is likely on the horizon.
Looking forward to 2025, Lienkha identifies several risks that could dampen Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. This includes negative economic signals from the US or a broad equity market downturn. Such developments could trigger a Bitcoin sell-off, exacerbated by the market’s high volatility and the prevalent use of leveraged trading among retail investors.
