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Ruholamin Haqshanas
Author
Ruholamin Haqshanas
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Bitcoin remains under pressure, failing to sustain levels above $85,000 on March 14, despite a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 index.
The leading cryptocurrency has not traded above $90,000 for over a week, raising concerns among traders about whether the bull market has lost momentum and how long selling pressure will persist.
Bitcoin’s Basis Rate Signals Stability Despite Price Decline
Despite a 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,354 on January 20, Bitcoin’s derivatives market suggests resilience.
The Bitcoin basis rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts over spot markets, has rebounded after briefly signaling bearish sentiment on March 13.
Traders typically demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for longer settlement periods, and while Bitcoin’s current 5% basis rate is below the 8% recorded two weeks ago, it remains within neutral territory.
This suggests that leveraged buyers are still engaged in the market, though with reduced confidence.
Bitcoin’s price movement has closely tracked the S&P 500, challenging the long-held notion that the asset is non-correlated with traditional markets.
As global economic uncertainties persist, investors appear to be reducing exposure to risk-on assets like Bitcoin and moving into safer investments, such as short-term bonds.
However, central banks are expected to implement stimulus measures to prevent a recession, a move that could favor Bitcoin as a scarce asset.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently see a less than 40% probability of U.S. interest rates falling below 3.75% from the current 4.25% baseline ahead of the July 30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
If economic concerns ease and the stock market stabilizes, Bitcoin could reclaim the $90,000 level.
However, if panic selling continues, risk assets may face further pressure, and Bitcoin could struggle in the coming months—especially if spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experience continued net outflows.
Bitcoin Derivatives Show No Signs of Bearish Stress
Despite recent market fluctuations, Bitcoin derivatives remain stable. The 25% delta skew, a key metric for options traders, indicates that professional traders are not actively hedging against further downside.
This suggests that the market does not anticipate Bitcoin falling to $76,900 in the near future.
During bullish periods, put (sell) options typically trade at a 6% or higher discount, while bearish conditions push this metric to a 6% premium.
While brief spikes in bearish sentiment were observed on March 10 and March 12, the delta skew has remained within a neutral range, signaling a healthy derivatives market.
Bitcoin’s margin market further reflects investor confidence.
At OKX, the long-to-short margin ratio currently stands at 18:1, indicating strong bullish positioning.
Historically, extreme confidence pushes this ratio above 40:1, while levels below 5:1 are seen as bearish. The current ratio mirrors sentiment from January 30, when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000.
Over $920 million in leveraged long futures contracts were liquidated in the seven days leading up to March 13, adding to short-term volatility.
However, Bitcoin’s derivatives and margin markets show no significant signs of stress, suggesting that investor sentiment remains strong.
