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Journalist
Hassan Shittu
Journalist
Hassan Shittu
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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has issued a stark warning that the 2025 altseason will be selective rather than universal, with most altcoins failing to generate returns.
His insights, shared in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), pinpointed three critical factors determining which altcoins will thrive: potential ETF approvals, sustained user engagement, and revenue-generating business models.
Why Will 2025 Altseason Be Selective?
With institutional investment increasing and market conditions shifting, analysts are optimistic about ETF approvals for select altcoins.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate high approval probabilities for Litecoin (90%), Dogecoin (75%), Solana (70%), and XRP (65%).
The approval of these ETFs could substantially boost their respective ecosystems, but many smaller altcoins are unlikely to experience similar gains.
The optimism surrounding ETFs is further reinforced by pro-crypto policies under the Trump administration.
Under Acting Chairman Mark Uyeda, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been more accommodating toward cryptocurrency regulation. It recently dismissed cases against Coinbase, Opensea, and Robinhood.
Furthermore, Franklin Templeton has already filed for a Solana ETF, and Brazil is set to launch the world’s first XRP spot ETF.
These developments indicate growing institutional interest in select altcoins rather than the speculative pumps of previous cycles.
CryptoQuant CEO Redefines 2025 Altseason
Ki Young Ju has challenged the traditional concept of altcoin season, arguing that the historical capital flow dynamics have fundamentally changed.
According to Ju, past market cycles saw capital rotating from Bitcoin into smaller altcoins, fueling broad-based rallies.
However, this pattern is becoming obsolete with increasing institutional involvement and evolving regulatory frameworks.
In the X post, Ju likened the disappearance of the old altcoin season to climate change, altering seasonal weather patterns.
“The old altseason capital flow cycle is obsolete. What I meant was that due to climate change, the rainy season has completely disappeared, leaving only a season of occasional drizzles,” he explained.
The new cycle, Ju argues, sees capital primarily flowing into widely accepted altcoins rather than speculative micro-cap tokens.
Institutional investors favor stability over volatility, meaning many altcoins that thrived in previous speculative cycles will struggle to gain traction.
Recent market data reflects this as CoinShares report highlighted Bitcoin’s outflows of $571 million last week, while altcoins such as XRP led inflows with $38.3 million.
Other major altcoins, including Solana and Ethereum, also registered positive performance.
Ju also highlighted liquidity struggles in the current market. He described the environment as a “PvP fight,” meaning capital is being redistributed among existing assets rather than fresh liquidity entering the market.
This reinforces the notion that institutional capital is reshaping the sector, reducing the likelihood of indiscriminate altcoin booms driven by retail speculation.
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The Regulatory Landscape and Market Challenges
While optimism is growing about ETF approvals, regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor in the market’s evolution.
The SEC’s approach to altcoin ETF accreditation will significantly impact which projects succeed in the coming cycle.
Recent filings for altcoin ETFs suggest that regulatory bodies are gradually warming up to crypto, but approval is not guaranteed for all projects.
At the same time, the broader market is navigating the economic impact of financial reforms under the Trump administration.
While pro-crypto policies have bolstered institutional interest, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum, recently testing the $90,000 level.
This indicates that macroeconomic factors, including interest rates and regulatory clarity, will continue influencing market movement.
Ultimately, market participants are now evaluating projects based on fundamental strength, real-world adoption, and financial sustainability rather than chasing speculative pumps.
The days of indiscriminate altcoin surges may be over, making selectivity the key to success in the upcoming cycle. As it stands, only fundamentally strong altcoins might survive the 2025 cycle.
