June’s heatwave helped boost retail sales last month, but experts have warn the rebound only masks a “challenging backdrop,” with soaring food inflation putting increased pressure on UK households.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that retail sales volumes rose by 0.9% in June, following a downwardly revised 2.8% drop in May. Demand for both non-alcoholic and alcoholic drinks increased in the hot weather, while motor fuel sales saw their largest jump in over a year as Britons “ventured out.” June marked the first of three summer heatwaves, with temperatures topping 33C, and was followed by another heatwave at the end of the month. However, the sales rebound was smaller than the 1.1% increase most economists expected. Overall, retail sales volumes edged up just 0.2% in the three months to the end of June, down from 1.3% growth in the previous quarter.
Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said: “Following a poor May, it was an improved month for retail sales with growth across all main sectors. The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases.
“It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine. Looking at broader trends, retail sales are up slightly across the latest quarter, but are down when compared with pre-pandemic levels.”
The ONS said food stores saw sales rise 0.7% month-on-month in June, which followed a 5.4% fall in May. It added: “This rise was mainly because of improved sales volumes in supermarkets, with some retailer comments mentioning increased sales of drinks because of the warm weather.”
Online retailers also saw solid trade, with sales up 1.7% last month, the highest since February 2022. According to the ONS, this was largely due to sales promotions and good weather.
Sales at the petrol pumps also jumped, up by 2.8%, which marked the biggest rise since May 2024. Clothing sales increased as shoppers snapped up summer ranges, with sales of clothing and footwear up 1% in June.
Non-food shops, such as department stores, saw sales edge just 0.2% higher as trade was held back by lower demand for household goods and furnishings, and as shoppers stayed away in the heat.
But Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said the sales bounce-back “masks a challenging backdrop” in the UK economy.
He said: “Looking back over the last 12 months, the retail sector has seen a relatively modest performance, which is expected to continue through the rest of the year and into next.
“There are signs that consumers are becoming slightly more confident, but the retail sector will still have to contend with the effects of slowing wage growth, ongoing fiscal tightening, and some mortgagors still having to refinance onto higher interest rates.”
Another expert pointed out that food inflation is still “hitting households harder”, leading to renewed uncertainty around the cost of living.
Latest ONS inflation data showed prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 4.5% in June 2025. This was the third consecutive increase in the rate this year, and the highest recorded since February 2024.
Nicholas Found, head of commercial insights at Retail Economics, said: “While headline sales figures for June suggest modest momentum on the surface, much of the uplift was seasonal and driven by heavy promotional activity around events, sport and warmer weather.
“Beyond that, demand remains selective and so-so. Food inflation is hitting households harder, leading to tighter budgets and renewed uncertainty around the cost of living.”
Scott Gallacher, director at Rowley Turton, said: “The rise in retail sales — especially food and drink — may say less about renewed confidence and more about people drowning their sorrows or comfort eating as economic worries mount.
“Rather than celebrating good times, shoppers might simply be seeking small comforts in the face of rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and falling house prices. It feels more like retail therapy than a true recovery. The sunshine may have given a short-term boost to spending, but economically, there are still dark clouds overhead.”
Philly Ponniah, chartered wealth manager at Philly Financial, said: “The 0.9% rise after May’s sharp decline reflects weather-boosted purchases rather than fundamental economic strength. While supermarkets saw stronger trading and fuel sales rose as people got out in the sun, this doesn’t signal broader resilience. The underlying consumer picture remains tough, with stretched household budgets and stubborn inflation pressures still in play.”
