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Sujha Sundararajan
Author
Sujha Sundararajan
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The National Gambling Authority of France (ANJ), the nation’s gambling regulator, is reportedly preparing to ban Polymarket in France.
According to French media The Big Whale, ANJ’s source noted that Polymarket is illegal in the country. “Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France.”
Various regulatory authorities across jurisdictions are eyeing the Polymarket, which lets users bet on the probability of almost everything.
Recently, more than $3.2 billion in bets have been placed on the US elections. The report read that on November 5 alone, the platform recorded $294 million in volume.
Further, crypto whales and investors have made millions on the leading decentralised prediction market.
For instance, a French trader, who goes by the name Théo, placed bets over $30 million on Trump’s victory and saw about $48 million in profits. This could be the primary reason for drawing the authority’s attention.
The ANJ source noted that the authority would “prohibit access” to the Polymarket site in the near future.
William O’Rorke, partner at French law firm, ORWL Avocats, called Polymarket “like a sports bet.”
“Unlike financial companies, the ANJ has the power to block the platform even though Polymarket does not specifically target French users.”
Polymarket, which is though based in New York, is currently not accessible to Americans. Reports surfaced that the betting platform paid U.S. social media influencers for election content.
ANJ Could Block Domain Name, Website
The gambling regulator told the publication that it is aware of the French whale that amassed millions on Polymarket.
“We are aware of this site and we are currently examining its operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation.”
Further, O’Rorke noted that the authorities could block the domain name in France. The ANJ could even put pressure on players that provide its access to the French market, he added.
However, it is still not clear how the French regulators would ban the use of Polymarket. This is because, even if the domain or website is blocked, it can be easily accessed using a VPN.
Polymarket Sees Similar Trajectory to Early DeFi Skepticism
Mohd Kifa, head of compliance at Flipster derivatives exchange, compares the betting market’s current skepticisms to early decentralised finance (DeFi) doubts.
He told Cryptonews that Polymarket’s surprise hit this year has showcased prediction markets’ potential as blockchain’s next killer app.
“A useful analogy to Polymarket’s current rise is 2020’s DeFi Summer. While the frenzy around DeFi cooled off quickly back then, the attention it garnered mobilized talent and capital, leading to significant progress in DeFi today. Polymarket may see a similar trajectory.”
However, he added, skepticism persists in this market. Some suspect that Trump’s recent rising odds are the result of deceptive manipulation, while others argue that Polymarket isn’t as liquid as it appears.
