Your buck is likely to take you on a little farther road trip next year.
At least that’s
the outlook from Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis and one of the most cited experts on gasoline prices.
De Haan is predicting a 13 cents a gallon drop in regular unleaded gas prices nationwide next year, along with the usual seasonal ups and downs seen every spring and summer. His 2023 prediction fell short by only 2 cents – $3.49 a gallon versus $3.51 in actuality.
“Those seasonal trends are very well established,” he said. “But all in all, we expect a modest improvement.”
For 2024, De Haan is forecasting a high of $3.45 to $3.85 for Dallas-Fort Worth drivers – putting North Texas on par with cities like Houston, Atlanta and Cleveland. California drivers could see prices as high as $6.35 a gallon.
Across Texas, the yearly average will be anywhere from $2.88 to $3.18 a gallon. Across the country, the yearly average is predicted to be $3.38 a gallon.
U.S. gas prices will be the lowest in the first three months and the last three months of next year, dropping as low as $2.99 on average in December, De Haan predicted.
Texas tends to be one of the cheapest states to buy gas in the country, based on its location and taxes, De Haan said. Texas’ gasoline taxes are
among the lowest in the nation.
De Haan cautioned his outlook with a caveat about how global conflicts or weather could disrupt production, rendering predictions moot.
“As the world continues to navigate situations like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and violence in the Middle East, an elevated level of uncertainty remains, making an accurate forecast very challenging,” he wrote in his forecast. “These situations, as well as the fluid state of the global economy, fiscal policy by central banks to tame inflation, as well as potential interest rate cuts could alter the direction of the economy, shifting fundamentals in significant ways.”
Much like 2022,
when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted global oil production, gas prices depend on a global marketplace. Russia produces 10% of the global supply. This year, the global economy has seen slowing growth as central banks raised interest rates significantly, according to GasBuddy.
Another wildcard is electric vehicles, which reduce gasoline consumption. De Haan sees the nation’s EV transition slowing next year, especially with the heightened price of new vehicles. New EV prices averaged $51,762 in November – about 8% higher than gas-powered vehicles,
according to Kelley Blue Book data.
With another U.S. presidential election on the horizon, government policy surrounding EVs also could change.
The Biden Administration has offered federal tax credits to incentivize consumers to make a shift away from gas-powered cars and trucks.
“Americans have obviously seen a good incentive to move over to electric vehicles, much of which is the fact that they were paying more to fill their tanks up in 2022 – a record-setting amount that they spent on gasoline,” De Haan said.
Americans are expected to spend $446.9 billion on gasoline next year, down over $32 billion from this year. GasBuddy attributes the drop to U.S. oil production’s recovery from the pandemic and declining risk from the war on Ukraine with Russia.
©2023 The Dallas Morning News. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
