CHIEF EXECUTIVES normally relish the idea of having one of their own in the White House. When that man is Donald Trump, who will be back there after a decisive victory over his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, on November 5th, the feelings are mixed. Some tycoons are big fans of the president-elect with big hopes for Trump 2.0—notably the wealthiest of the lot, Elon Musk. Others loathe the idea of having a convicted felon with a fondness for autocrats as the leader of the free world.
Still, whatever CEOs may think of Mr Trump personally, they have businesses to run. That means making nice with the incoming president and his Republican Party in Congress. Talk to corporate types, though, including many who back Mr Trump, and it seems this may prove easier said than done.
For corporate America there is lots to like about the prospect of a second Trump term. The stockmarket jumped by 2.5% the day after the election, only some of which can be chalked up a “phew” rally by investors happy that the result was clear-cut and uncontested. A lot is down to expectations of lower corporate taxes and a bonfire of red tape, especially for big oil and Wall Street. As for Mr Trump’s vow to raise tariffs on all imports, which would increase companies’ input costs and provoke tit-for-tat levies in export markets, investors are treating it as bluster. On November 6th shares of firms listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, which would be hardest hit by the China-bashing “tariff man”, lost 0.5% and 2% in value, respectively—hardly a sign of panic.
Bosses will not exactly miss President Joe Biden, either. Their companies did swimmingly on his watch, with record profits and soaring stock prices. But that, chief executives insist, was in spite of his administration, not because of it. Many executives and lobbyists describe Mr Biden’s White House as “insular” and bereft of people who “get” business. One Wall Street grandee counts just three figures who shuffled through the president’s inner circle with any real private-sector chops: Brian Deese and Mike Pyle, two advisers, and Wally Adeyemo, the deputy treasury secretary. Gina Raimondo, who heads Mr Biden’s commerce department, is seen to be competent and is liked by chief executives, but with just a few years of experience outside government, is no great business leader.
By contrast, in his first term Mr Trump surrounded himself with titans of industry, including Gary Cohn, a former president of Goldman Sachs, and Rex Tillerson, a former chief executive of ExxonMobil. Mr Trump’s chaotic governing style makes the Reagan-era dictum that “personnel is policy” truer than ever. A big question for businesses is therefore whom he will enlist this time around.
Many reputable business folk have distanced themselves from Mr Trump over the years because of his racist and authoritarian outbursts. Those who remain at his side, such as Howard Lutnick, the billionaire boss of Cantor Fitzgerald, an asset manager, and Mr Musk, supposedly to be put in charge of cutting government waste, can be charitably described as controversial—and uncharitably as “bad news”, as a veteran New York financier shudders. Mr Lutnick is seen to be self-dealing. And Mr Musk is Mr Musk.
Mr Trump’s vice-president in waiting, J.D. Vance, does not reassure America Inc either. In a speech in July he declared that “We’re done, ladies and gentlemen, catering to Wall Street. We’ll commit to the working man.” He is an admirer of Lina Khan, Mr Biden’s trustbuster-in-chief, who doesn’t see a large firm which she wouldn’t like to break up. Mr Vance might even suggest keeping her on as head of the Federal Trade Commission.
Mr Trump probably won’t. He is no antitrust warrior and, as his first term suggests, would rather play favourites and pick targets. Mr Vance, though, embodies a wider concern corporate America has about the next four years: the economic populism engulfing Capitol Hill. In the halls of Congress, businessmen, bankers and lawyers are being progressively displaced by career politicians and blue-collar workers (see chart). Corporate emissaries in Washington complain that the newcomers are often sceptical of business and ignorant of its needs. Meeting requests are declined even by supposedly sympathetic Republicans, lest this come across to the party’s working-class base as untoward chumminess. One lobbyist describes his job as “a professional javelin-catcher”.
Dealing with this new political reality might be easier if companies spoke as one. Alas, observes a lobbying boss, “The era where business has a singular voice is over.” The 112-year-old US Chamber of Commerce, its most venerable megaphone, is losing influence. Its annual spending on lobbying declined from well over $100m in 2009-12 to $70m under Mr Biden. It is still patching things up with Republicans after it dared endorse 23 Democratic freshmen in 2020. The Business Roundtable, a more centrist organisation of half the chamber’s age and, thanks to a board full of corporate heartthrobs such as Tim Cook of Apple and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, many times its star power, consigned itself to irrelevance after blundering into the culture wars in 2019 by embracing an impossibly cuddly version of capitalism.
With their two big bullhorns going quiet, more companies are turning to industry groups to represent their interests. In the past few years the National Association of Realtors (which advocates on behalf of what the British call estate agents) has often been the biggest spender on lobbying in America. Outfits like Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (for drugmakers) and the Institute of International Finance (for Wall Street) report increased interest in their policy and advocacy work.
In a populist move fit for a populist moment, some firms may try to bypass the swamp and go directly to the people. In 2020 Uber, Lyft and DoorDash put $185m into a successful ad blitz to quash a Californian ballot initiative that might have killed their business model by giving gig workers greater employee rights. More likely, CEOs will seek favour from the big man directly: Mr Cook and Andy Jassy, boss of Amazon, promptly praised Mr Trump’s victory on X.
Other chief executives have buttered him up in pre-emptive conversations in recent weeks, suggesting that they’ll try for the personal touch. And with Mr Trump yet to choose his team, they still hope that his worst instincts will be curbed. But they aren’t counting on it. ■
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