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Bitcoin’s (BTC) current market cycle has left many investors feeling uncertain. Unlike past bull runs, this one appears slower and less explosive. However, economist Alex Krüger argues that the Bitcoin supercycle remains intact, despite ongoing volatility.
In a recent post to his 205,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), Krüger acknowledged that Bitcoin’s range-bound movement is frustrating for investors. But he believes that BTC is still on track for long-term upside.
“BTC is stuck in a range, which I think eventually resolves higher. The supercycle theory is intact,” Krüger stated.
However, he warns that not all altcoins will benefit equally. Unlike previous cycles where liquidity fueled massive gains across the board, this time investors should be more selective in their holdings.
Volatility Remains, but Bitcoin’s Declines Are Less Severe
One misconception about the supercycle, according to Krüger, is that Bitcoin will rise indefinitely without corrections. He clarifies that BTC still follows the equity markets but with smaller pullbacks.
“My definition has been playing out: BTC trades in line with equities [but with] shorter, smaller drawdowns—40% instead of 80-90% declines.”
This suggests that while Bitcoin will continue to experience corrections, they are less extreme than in previous cycles, reinforcing a maturing market structure.
Solana and Ethereum: What’s Next?
Krüger remains bullish on Solana (SOL), calling it the “fastest horse” in the market. However, he cautions that heavy token unlocks in the next two months could increase selling pressure as more supply enters circulation.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) needs a fundamental boost to regain bullish momentum. The economist highlights the need for:
- Increased value capture from Layer 2 solutions (L2s).
- More game-changing applications running on the Ethereum network.
Without these catalysts, ETH may struggle to keep up with Bitcoin and Solana’s price movements.
Altseason is Coming—But It Won’t Be Like Before
Krüger expects another altseason to emerge but not at the same scale as previous cycles. While he sees negative sentiment and bearish positioning as potential contrarian buy signals, he warns that without a clear catalyst, timing remains uncertain.
“Expect a new alt season at some point. Shorter and smaller than prior ones. Positioning is very negative, and so is sentiment.”
This suggests that while some altcoins may see strong rallies, the days of indiscriminate gains across the board are likely over.
Bitcoin Price Faces Critical Resistance at $97,000
Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound, with $97,000 acting as a key resistance level. The 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating market indecision.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: The 50-day EMA at $97,636 is capping upside moves. Bitcoin must break above $97,000 to regain bullish momentum.
- Support: If $95,000 fails to hold, BTC could decline toward $93,500 or even $91,700. A break below $91,700 would confirm a deeper bearish trend.
- Upside Target: A move above $97,000 could spark a rally toward $100,594, invalidating the bearish structure.
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