In her recent interview on The View, Vice President Kamala Harris was asked what differentiates her from President Joe Biden. The question suggests that for Harris to win she must show how she is different from Joe Biden. We believe that she can win over Donald Trump’s falsehoods by forcefully articulating the true triumphs of the Biden-Harris Administration, starting with the economy.
To date, she has proudly call herself a “capitalist” promoting programs that champion business growth, from small businesses to global dynamos, in addition to proposing tax cuts for start-ups, preserving sensible trade policies, and promising independence of the Federal Reserve.
As for other points of differentiation, Harris should not look to remove herself from the successes of the Biden-Harris economic agenda. She should be aligning herself to the administration as closely as possible—an administration that just delivered an unprecedented 46th record high in the stock market (S&P 500) over a single year. Key figures in both parties, media commentators, and voters have fallen victim to Trump’s message, prompting the vice president to apologize for unattributable economic woes rather than celebrate successes from historic achievements.
Polling data consistently shows Harris struggling to convince voters, notably those in swing states and young men, about the strength of the Biden-Harris track record, including the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. The current message is obviously not sticking. It is time to embrace the facts and change the narrative.
Real GDP growth has been as strong under Biden-Harris as the Trump Administration, even after accounting for the negative effects of COVID-19 in the final year of the former president’s term. In fact, the World Bank unexpectedly revised its global growth forecast upwards largely because of stronger growth in the U.S.
Despite inheriting a job market in turmoil due to the pandemic, Biden-Harris led the American workforce out of distress by adding more than 15 million jobs, resulting in historically low unemployment. Again, Biden-Harris have established stronger employment growth than Trump even after controlling for COVID-19 by more than 3 million jobs, including 50% more in the manufacturing sector.
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Real wages are now increasing at an annualized rate of 1.5%, matching the Trump pre-pandemic economy. In dollar terms, income growth has outpaced price growth by more than $3,500 since Biden-Harris came into office. The income benefits are apparent in real disposable personal incomes which are up by 8.8% since February 2020, before any pandemic disruptions.
The supposed elephant in the room is inflation – which has returned to the Fed’s target range at 2.2% after more than 36 months of above range readings. While prices have increased at an uncomfortable clip for everyone, inflation has been found to be primarily the result of supply-chain disruptions, not policy decisions driven by either the Trump or Biden-Harris administrations. In fact, Europe, including Germany and the U.K., as well as Asia Pacific also confronted comparable levels of peak inflation (2022).
Biden-Harris have worked to disentangle supply chains, easing price inflation, despite an unprecedented succession of interest rate hikes by the Fed. Oil, natural gas, and renewable energy production have each reached record highs under Biden-Harris—notably punctuated by oil production running a full 1 million more barrels per day than Trump and 30% more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Gas prices have fallen from their highs in 2022, a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, by more than 30% and remained steady irrespective of Mideast tensions. And for those who blame Biden-Harris about the price of eggs, the yolk is on them, as the avian flu has decimated one-third of egg-producing hens.
Many economists believe Trump’s proposed campaign policies would lead to higher inflation, interest rates, and deficits compared to those proposed by Harris. Some estimates expect Trump proposals to increase fiscal deficits by two to four times more than Harris.
Trump has successfully created a counter narrative and has done so since his first presidential campaign, when the former president promised to invest in American infrastructure and bring back manufacturing jobs. He hardly delivered on the latter, especially compared to Biden-Harris, and failed to deliver on the former. Biden-Harris have created nearly twice as many manufacturing jobs and activated more than one trillion dollars into advanced and basic infrastructure through the CHIPS and Science Act, Infrastructure and Jobs Act, and Inflation Reduction Act.
This confluence of factors, as well as a degree of market stability that was absent under the Trump Administration, has catalyzed the S&P 500 to notch more than 40 record highs in this year alone under Biden-Harris and delivered near identical returns to those of Trump.
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Turning to immigration and border security, once a sore subject for Biden-Harris, monthly border encounters have fallen to similar levels as those of Trump and Obama—Obama’s second term actually had lower numbers than Trump did on average. Harris has promised to build on the current improvements with a balanced approach of strong border security and sensible immigration policies. As California attorney general, Harris showed a willingness and ability to be tough on enforcement when she cracked down on transnational gangs.
Finally, while Trump likes to brag that the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts would never happen under his watch, America’s leadership on the world stage has seen an overwhelming rebound in peer confidence under Biden-Harris leadership. Despite vows to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict before his inauguration day, if elected, Trump offers no explanation as to how—besides uncomfortable inferences of his close relationship with Putin. Biden-Harris, meanwhile, have led international response efforts for each situation and secured nearly $200 billion worth of bipartisan military support to contain the conflicts.
The Biden-Harris Administration has re-invigorated the largest economy in the world from the depths of COVID-19, while matching or outperforming the former president across all key metrics. Vice President Harris still has time to combat Trump misinformation and change the narrative.
