Martin Lewis has examined the possible impact on UK energy prices of a peace deal in Ukraine. US president Donald Trump is attempting to secure peace in the war-ravaged nation three years after Russia invaded in 2022.
Talks have been held recently between senior American and Russian foreign policy figures. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader, found himself at the centre of a public spat with Trump last week during a press briefing at the White House.
Talk of peace is still at a very early stage, with American plans vague and Russian commitments unclear. Ukraine is determined to get US security guarantees but Trump is lukewarm on offering much help – as was clear from the White House row.
But if a deal can be reached, there will be implications far beyond the Ukrainian borders. And money specialist Martin Lewis explored this issue when he appeared this week on ITV show This Morning.
He said that a peace deal could lead to a drop in energy prices here in the UK. And he made the comments as he discussed the energy price cap, which is going up 6.4% on April 1.
Speaking to co-hosts Ben Shephard and Cat Deeley, he raised the subject of Ukraine as he discussed the case of a single mum who is on the lowest British Gas tariff until the 26th of May, but is considering a change.
He said: “We talked last week about [how] the energy price cap is going up 6.4% on the 1st of April.
“Many people think that fixed rates go up as well. They don’t.
“Just [to] be slightly complicated… The energy price cap is set on past wholesale rates.
“The April energy price cap is set on wholesale rates between the middle of November and the middle of February. They went up so it’s gone up.
“What the rate you can fix at is based on the rate that energy providers can currently buy in energy for the next year. Now that doesn’ t move in sync with the price cap.
“I can’t tell you what the situation may be in May. Look, you know, if there is peace in Ukraine and Russian gas supplies are turned back on, energy prices will be a lot lower then.
“You will be able to fix at a much lower price than it is now. If the opposite and it looks like we are going to continue to be entrenched in that Ukraine situation, then energy prices – or Russian supply isn’t back on – energy prices will be higher.
“So I can’t tell you what the situation will be in May because it’s simply an unknowable. But I can say the likelihood is, right now, I would suspect your fix is very cheap so you probably want to keep it running as long as you possibly can.”
On the same show, he also advised viewers about a rule that comes into force with 50 days to go before a fixed deal ends.
The MoneySavingExpert website founder spoke after a question from Mandy, a single widowed mum on Universal Credit.
Her full question said: “I am currently locked into the lowest British Gas tariff until the 26th of May, but I am not sure why that’s the date because I locked in last April.
“I can’t seem to change until the 26th without breaking the contract and incurring a £75 fee.
“What is my best option? I use very little energy as I am a single widowed parent of two young children. I am also in receipt of Universal Credit.”
Martin said in response: “Well, if you fixed just over a year ago, you are probably on a cheap rate right now so you don’t want to do very much.
“You ask why the fix is… most fixes with British Gas… tends not to do a year, it tends to have a fix available that is available to a set date. That is normally a year-ish, so sometimes it’s 13 months, sometimes its 13 and a half, depending on when you get it before it launches a new one.”
Then he turned to his message that he wanted everyone to take note of. He said: “Now the first thing everybody needs to know, so note this down everyone, if you are on a fix, within the last 50 days of your fix – so that literally means day 49 , day 48, 47, 46 – you are free to move and they cannot charge you early exit penalty.
“Early exit penalties cannot be charged in the last 50 days of your fix. So it isnt quite a case of you have to wait until the 26th of May.
“You have to wait until, if you don’t wanna pay an early exit penalty, you can wait to 49 days before the 26th of May, which is probably, what, the beginning of April. Having said that, I would suspect that you are on the cheapest fix at the moment.”
