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Ruholamin Haqshanas
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Ruholamin Haqshanas
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Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points in the 2024 presidential race, according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform.
This marks a significant shift from earlier betting odds in September, where Harris held the advantage.
The latest Polymarket figures show Trump with a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November, compared to Harris’ 45%.
Trump Leads in Key Swing States
This reversal extends to key swing states, with Trump now leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Arizona and Georgia, in particular, show the widest margins favoring Trump, representing crucial battlegrounds for the GOP candidate.
Trump’s rise in the polls comes amid ongoing speculation about the upcoming election.
Despite his growing momentum, financial analyst Jim Cramer offered a different perspective, predicting that Harris would win the 2024 race.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump wins,” Cramer stated during an Oct. 11 broadcast.
His comments stirred conversation on social media, particularly among cryptocurrency traders who often reference the ‘inverse Cramer effect’—a belief that the opposite of Cramer’s predictions tends to occur.
Trump’s increasing popularity on Polymarket coincides with his vocal support for the cryptocurrency industry.
In September, Trump made headlines when he used Bitcoin to purchase burgers at a New York campaign event, an effort seemingly aimed at attracting crypto voters.
His campaign also recently launched World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) project with its own native token.
Reactions to Trump’s embrace of crypto have been mixed.
Journalist Nic Carter warned that the project could pose risks to Trump’s campaign, arguing that it could become a target for hackers, given its DeFi structure.
However, other experts, such as Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, downplay the impact of the election on cryptocurrency prices.
Tapiero recently predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
Over 87% of Polymarket Crypto Wallets Did Not Make a Profit
The majority of users on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have not been able to rake in any profits.
As reported, out of 171,113 crypto wallets active on the platform, 149,383, or 87.3%, did not record profits. Only 12.7% of wallets, totaling 21,730, managed to achieve positive returns.
Among the profitable wallets, the earnings remain modest for most.
Approximately 2,138 wallets earned more than $1,000, while the majority saw gains of less than $100.
Another 7,400 wallets reported profits in the $100 to $1,000 range, indicating that substantial returns are relatively rare on the platform.
Meanwhile, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP is set to incorporate election odds data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket into its widely used Terminal.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has become a prominent platform for tracking real-time election odds.
The platform allows users to bet on a wide range of event outcomes, leveraging transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts.
