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Tim Alper
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Tim Alper
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Russian experts believe that altseason may return this year, with new impetus coming into the altcoin market. But they have warned that the market “won’t be like it was before.”
VG GROUP Managing Partner Vagiz Nurullov remarked that summer is “not the most active and successful period for trading, especially cryptocurrencies,” Russia’s RBC reported.
Altseason to Begin in November?
Nurullov said that crypto suffers from “not having as much liquidity as global stock markets,” as well as increased volatility.
However, with the summer months now gone, the expert opined that more “active” periods may be ahead.
“We are, generally speaking, entering a more active stage of the market. We can see that the market is wtinessing an increase in open interest. And, in general, traders are entering into transactions more actively. Their appetite for risk has increased.”
VG GROUP Managing Partner Vagiz Nurullov
The media outlet pointed out that “although September is traditionally a weak month” for crypto, “the overall market value of cryptocurrencies continued to rise in early autumn.”
Since the beginning of the month, RBC remarked, the market “has grown by 7%,” despite bumpy Bitcoin (BTC) prices.
Russian analysts said they believe that much depends on BTC prices. They opined that Bitcoin “needs to consolidate above the $65,200 mark “to confirm the change of downward trends to an upward direction.”
Nurullov said experts “can see an increase in open interest,” although he conceded that this was “not very strong yet,” as the market is still “awakening.”
He added that the market is now at a stage where several positive forces are pulling in the same upward direction.
He identified these as:
- forthcoming FTX investor repayments
- the Fed’s willingness to cut interest rates
- the US elections
- crypto market seasonality
Global Factors Set to Come into Play
Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at Neomarkets, concurred. He claimed that the Fed’s first rate cut since 2020 was “the key event of the current financial year.”
Kalmanovich explained that this would mark the start of “a cycle of reductions in bank interest rates.”
And this, he added, was “traditionally a strong trigger for the growth of risky assets, such as cryptocurrency.”
The analyst explained that “large capital” was “beginning to lose interest in lower-rate dollar deposits.”
And this, he said, would soon see money “redirected” to assets like alts. Kalmanovich added that the prospect of further rate cuts would also help drive up crypto activity.
The expert said that observers would do well to pay attention to the latest batch of figures on the US labor market, which will go public on October 4.
And he also agreed that the US presidential election, on November 5, would provide further opportunity for growth.
Kalmanovich noted that “the banking sector typically tries to provide the economy and markets with maximum liquidity before this event.”
That could help “the growth of a wide range of cryptoassets,” the expert opined.
Experts Urge Caution
However, there were also words of caution. Any forthcoming “altcoin season” will “not be like those we are used to seeing,” Nurullov forecasted.
He said that in previous “alt seasons,” traders were not forced to choose from such a large range of new crypto projects, as is currently the case.
The experts suggested that a “first wave of growth” would likely hit the markets “by early November.”
A second may emerge “by March,” they said, although they agreed that much would depend on the outcome of the US elections.
Kalmanovich said there was room for growth in projects that are “a little behind the growth schedule,” but are “not yet significantly overbought.”
He earmarked assets such as NEAR (NEAR), XRP, and Polkadot (DOT), explaining that these alts’ “prices have been lagging behind the rest since the beginning of the year.”
Such tokens “can still make up for lost time,” using lower rates in Western economies as “fuel,” Kalmanovich added.
In recent days, analysts like Moustache have made similar predictions, claiming that the coming altseason could be the “biggest altcoin bull run since 2017.”
