State pensioners could get a boost to their payments above the 4% rise predicted for next April.
The average earnings figures used for the triple lock were released today, with average earnings increasing four percent for the three months to July.
If this element of the triple lock were triggered for next year’s increase, the full new state pension would go up from £221.20 a week to £230.05 a week, providing a £460 a year boost.
But a financial analyst has said payments could jump up by even more. Yiannis Zourmpanos, financial consultant and senior contributor at Bountii, pointed to two key factors that could change the situation.
Firstly, he pointed out that the earnings figures “aren’t set in stone”. He explained: “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) often revises its earnings data, which means the state pension increase you’re expecting might not be the one you’ll get.”
He explained how the numbers can change, saying: “The ONS has been known to provide updated figures that more accurately reflect the actual earnings growth over a given period.
“This means that by the time the final calculations are made, we could see a different percentage being used for the state pension uprating.”
The other reason the increase could differ from today’s earnings figure as inflation could become the key metric.
Mr Zourmpanos warned: “While inflation was recorded at 2.2 percent in July, we’re not out of the woods yet.
“Inflation tends to be unpredictable, and if it spikes before the key September data is released, it could outpace earnings growth.
“If that happens, inflation—not earnings—will determine the state pension increase for 2024. And given the rising costs of essentials like food, energy, and housing, inflation could indeed take the lead.”
Martin Lewis welcomed the news that the state pension may increase by 4% next April, but he warned many pensioners face a difficult winter before then with a sharp rise in their bills.
He explained: “That starts next April. This winter most pensioners are facing (looking at energy bills alone) a typical £500 higher cost compared to last (energy bills are £100ish cheaper, but no £300 cost of living payment, no up to £300 Winter Fuel Payment).”
The eligibility for the Winter Fuel Payment is set to change for the coming winter, from a universal benefit for those of state pension age to only applying to those who are on certain means-tested benefits, such as Pension Credit.
Mr Lewis also pointed out that another issue is that many pensioners on low incomes are not getting all the support they can from the Government.
He explained: “The full state pension rise is for those who get the full state pension. There are up to 800,000 of the poorest pensioners who get less than the full state pension (£11,400 a year) who aren’t claiming Pension Credit and will miss out on the Winter Fuel Payment even though they should get it.
“They are very hard to reach and will be under huge financial pressure. These are therefore people the Government said should be helped but due to difficulties in the system won’t be. These are the people I’m most worried about, some of whom may end up choosing between heating and eating.”
