The financial squeeze on young couples has seen the number of births drop to a near 90-year low amid warnings over the impact on the UK economy.
Young adults struggling to pay for essentials such as energy bills, rents and mortgages have been unable to afford to think about starting a family, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It said the total fertility rate dropped to 1.44 children per woman in 2023, which is the lowest value since records began in 1938.
This is well below the 2.1 children per woman that is considered necessary to maintain a stable population in developed countries without migration – and could have consequences for Britain’s economy and, therefore, your money.
The ONS noted there were various factors behind the long-term fall in births, including the introduction of the contraceptive pill in the 1960s, the rise of women in employment and education, and – more recently – the cost of childcare and housing.
The official figures show that the most common age to have a baby is 30-34. And, since 2015, women have been more likely to have a baby over the age of 40 than under the age of 20.
Economists warn that a shortage of young people paying taxes in future years will hit economic growth and add to pressure public finances.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “We’re in the middle of a baby bust. Those who do have children are doing so later in life, so if you’re planning on postponing having children, it’s worth considering your finances.
“People are having children later for all sorts of reasons – including the fact that women are more likely to be studying into their 20s, and then establishing their career.
“Couples are also more likely to live together at older ages before marriage or children are on the agenda. And young people are wrestling with higher property prices, so they’re still saving for a property at the age when their parents had moved into their own home and started a family.”
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said that in the short-term lower births reduce spending pressure on schools, childcare and child benefits. But “over the longer term, it will, of course, mean fewer workers to support a growing elderly population.”
He said: “Relatively high rates of immigration may save us from going the way of Japan or South Korea, but these trends should still worry anyone thinking about what Britain will look like in 2050.”
Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK fiscal watchdog, mentioned an ageing population as one of the key factors that could push public debt to 274 percent of GDP over the next 50 years — nearly three times the level today.
Research from UCL also found that not feeling ready and not finding the right partner is preventing millennials (people born between 1981 and 1996) who want children from trying to have them.
Alina Pelikh, UCL research fellow and author of the report, told the FT: “While those without children may be navigating the complexities of finding a partner and establishing their careers before parenthood, parents are grappling with the realities of balancing existing family and financial responsibilities with the prospect of having more children.”
The ONS said that over the past decade, the declining fertility rate was steepest among those aged under 30. Mothers who gave birth to a child in 2023 were on average almost a year older than their 2013 counterparts, it noted.
Most advanced and developing countries face similar pressures. In the EU, birth numbers fell to a record low in 2023, with fertility rates as low as 1.2 children per woman in Italy and Spain.
All ‘advanced’ economies except Israel have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, according to the OECD. Meanwhile, more than half of all countries globally have an average number of births per woman below 2.1, according to the UN.
