Apparently, he’s not going to hang around when he gets there. He’s plotting to launch his coup against Sir Keir Starmer within days. Maybe hours. Senior figures like Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner are smoothing the path. Starmer has pledged to fight, which means we’re in for three months of in-party electioneering, as the country is forgotten. Which will basically involve Burnham, Wes Streeting and any other candidates promising Labour activists they’ll tax, borrow and spend to the max once in Number 10.
Burnham has already got into the swing of it. He’s made a string of thoughtless promises he can’t possibly keep in power. He’s got five U-turns to his name already. Or is that six including his one latest one on the triple lock? It’s hard to keep count. But behind his cheery northern-bloke-next-door demeanour, apparently he’s getting nervous. And he’s right to be. Suddenly, power is starting to look real. And now is an absolutely terrible time to become PM. Particularly if you’re left-wing. Because thanks to years of financial mismanagement, culminating in the disaster that is Chancellor Rachel Reeves, he won’t be able to meet any of his promises.
Burnham wants public ownership of essential services such as energy, rail and water, beginning with Thames Water. He also wants to overhaul social care, and there’s talk of paying a universal income to vulnerable people, and more benefits generally. Plus there’s the whole issue of defence. And if he’s mad enough to make Ed Miliband chancellor, Burnham have to spaff tens of billions more. Basically, he’s going to need an awful lot of money, and that brings me to the problem he’s currently in denial about. There isn’t any.
Judging by his recent comments about the bond markets, Burnham doesn’t understand how finance works. So he may be surprised to discover that Reeves is on course to borrow £140billion this year, purely to balance the books. He may also be confused to find that we spend £111billion a year purely on servicing the interest on the debts we’ve already run up. If someone sits down and explains it all to him, he might gulp with surprise. Then horror.
All those lovely things he planned to do to secure his popularity in power just won’t be affordable. And he won’t be able to borrow a penny more either. Bond investors already charge the UK a big premium to lend us money, because they don’t trust us. And they definitely don’t trust Andy Burnham, who will have to be on his very best behaviour. If he tries to borrow more, it’ll trigger a gilts crisis.
Which only leaves one thing. More tax. But the country can’t take more tax. All more tax will do is crush growth, as Rachel Reeves has spent two years demonstrating. The left waffle on about a wealth tax, but we don’t have enough billionaires to make a difference. They seem to think Silicon Valley is in Berkshire, and Elon Musk answers to HMRC.
The only thing Burnham can do to retain his popularity within the party is to spend, and he hasn’t got a penny to do that. Within weeks, the party will be as angry with him as they are with Keir Starmer. Burnham may try using his charm to win them over, but that doesn’t help when the financials get tough.
The hellish truth facing Burnham is that the money has run out, and his popularity will drain away even faster. He might quickly find himself longing for Manchester again. He was King there. Once. Now he’s descending into fiscal hell. No wonder he’s feeling nervous.
