As war drags on, Ukraine’s population is collapsing

As the war in Ukraine trudges through its fifth year, deaths there now outnumber births at a nearly four-to-one ratio.

According to figures published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice this week, Ukraine recorded 73,292 births and 259,853 deaths in the first half of 2026.

Ukraine thus records about 12,000 births per month, a sharp drop from the approximately 23,000 births per month it recorded before the war began.

Birth rates were notably low in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which is located at the war’s front line and is now mostly occupied by Russia. Only 134 births were recorded there during the first half of 2026.

“Few people are willing to bring children into the world while the country remains at war,” Marta Havryshko, a scholar who focuses on the Russo-Ukraine war, wrote on X. “Every additional year of fighting deepens the demographic crisis and pushes Ukraine closer to becoming an empty land.”

In addition, the war has sent millions of Ukrainians abroad.

“I don’t think it’s likely that Europe or other supporters of Ukraine can muster the kind of massive financial investment in a post-war reconstruction […] that would allow millions of Ukrainians to go back home,” Quincy Institute non-resident fellow Almut Rochowanski told RS.

“Ukrainian refugees abroad would need to know that they’re going home to functioning housing, schools, hospitals and sufficient incomes,” Rochowanski said. “That is a tall order.”

The new population figures come as fewer Ukrainians are demonstrating a desire to fight. Earlier this month, anti-conscription protests rocked the western city of Lviv. Ukraine also has about two million draft-dodgers and about 200,000 military deserters, according to the country’s former defense minister.

In line with polling it conducted last year, Gallup found last month that Ukrainians’ support for continued fighting remains low. Only 24% of respondents told Gallup that Ukraine should keep fighting until it wins the war. In contrast, 66% wanted a negotiated solution to end it as soon as possible.

About 52 million people lived in Ukraine in 1991. Back in May, Denys Uliutin, Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, said the country now only has about 22 to 25 million residents.