Burnham’s devolution drive could ‘push 90,000 jobs out of London’

Roughly 90,000 of London’s white-collar jobs could be pushed into other parts of the country as Andy Burnham accelerates his devolution drive, a top recruitment firm has predicted.

Legal, banking and accounting firms could be among those to shift thousands of jobs away from the capital in a bid to capitalise on the Prime Minister’s agenda and take advantage of cheaper office space and employment, recruitment company Robert Walters said in a new report.

The migration of roles could grant regional economies a £9bn boost over the next five years, the company said, which could rise to as much as £15bn per year on the back of increased local supply-chain demands and consumer spending in those areas.

“When professionals move into an area, the benefits ripple through the local economy,” said Jonny Bohane, senior manager at Robert Walters’ market intelligence team.

“Increased demand supports everything from transport and housing to cafes, co-working spaces and the wider network of local businesses that keep these cities running.”

The 90,000 roles would represent only 2.5 per cent of London’s overall workforce and indicates a rebalancing of jobs rather than any significant shift in business activity away from London, Robert Walters said.

London still dominates the UK economy and generates one in every four pounds nationwide, according to data from the Office of National Statistics. The capital counts for some 22.3 per cent of the UK’s GDP, according to the ONS.

Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds are expected to be the main beneficiaries of a shift in jobs away from London, the firm predicted.

Companies have been forced to consider moving workers to other areas in the country in a bid to combat spiralling costs and heightened taxes. The shortage of “prime” office space across London has also pushed up average rent prices in the capital.

Burnham’s vision

Burnham has doubled down on his promise to deliver “good growth in every postcode” in his first weeks as prime minister and announced a sweep of policies designed to grant great powers to the regions. He also opened a No 10 North at the end of July.

The job migration is expected to gradually build over the next few years. By the end of 2027, Robert Walters predicts that up to 12,000 jobs will be moved out of the capital.

That figure is expected to hit 45,000 by 2029. The North West will be a major beneficiary, as roughly 15,000 to 22,500 jobs are projected to be settled in the region by 2031.

This accounts for one quarter of total movements out of London and could inject £2.2bn into the region’s economy. The Midlands is anticipated to generate £1.8bn, while Yorkshire could receive a £1.3bn economic boost from London leavers.

Daniel Harris, managing director UK&I at Robert Walters, said: “Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham are the engine rooms of [regional] activity.

“Over the last decade, these regional centres have become key career destinations for UK white-collar workers. They offer a significant presence of high- profile, multinational employers… as well as a lower cost of living compared to the capital.”