The third gulf war should, in theory, be a huge blessing for big oil. In January most analysts had expected Brent crude, the global oil-price benchmark, to average $60 a barrel in 2026. It ended the first quarter at $118; refined products have risen faster still. With most Gulf oil trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, exports from America, Africa and Brazil are up. Western majors should therefore be collecting fatter margins on every barrel—and selling more of them, too.
