AIPAC Has Lost Over 30 of Its Midterm Races So Far, In Sign of Major Shift

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has lost dozens of races in which it backed a candidate in this year’s midterm elections, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the spending by the once insuperable political lobbying group, in a sign of its waning influence.

Politico found in a report on Thursday that more than 30 of the group’s candidates lost their elections this week. This marks “defeat for AIPAC in over three-fourths of the competitive races that have been called so far where it backed an incumbent,” Politico reported.

This includes candidates like Republican Representatives Mike Lawler (New York), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania), and Max Miller (Ohio), as well as Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who fell to progressive Israel critic Troy Jackson, and Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Collins has been a staunch defender of Israel in the Senate, and AIPAC was her biggest outside donor by a massive margin during the race. AIPAC gave $2.8 million supporting her race against Jackson, as data from OpenSecrets showed; the next-largest outside donor, investment firm KKR & Co., gave just a fraction of that, at $160,000.

AIPAC dumped even more money into the race against Michigan candidate Abdul El-Sayed, whose opposition to the U.S.-Israel relationship has been a hallmark of his campaign. AIPAC and its super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), reportedly dropped up to $9 million supporting Rogers in the last weeks of the election. This came after AIPAC spent a whopping $30 million opposing El-Sayed and backing Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Michigan) in the primary.

The next largest target after El-Sayed was Daniel Biss, who won his election to the U.S. House in Illinois after UDP dumped $6.3 million against him. Biss explicitly ran on a platform opposing AIPAC and its influence.

These losses are staggering for a political group whose name was once synonymous with power in D.C. In fact, these results indicate that being affiliated with the group is becoming politically toxic, due in large part to the work of pro-Palestine advocates who spoke out against the group amid Israel’s genocide in Gaza.

AIPAC, perhaps concerned about losing donors, defended its record on X, arguing that it backed 245 candidates who won their races. But the contributions to these races represented only about a third of their spending in this cycle.

According to Responsible Statecraft, almost two-thirds of the money that AIPAC and UDP spent this cycle went toward losing candidates. Via UDP, AIPAC spent $84.1 million on elections — $55.3 million of which went toward races where their preferred candidate lost. This stands in sharp contrast to prior election cycles. In the 2022 midterm election, Responsible Statecraft found, 69 percent of UDP spending went toward races their candidate won. In 2024, their winning ratio was 87 percent.

AIPAC can still wield enormous power over Congress. In its first post-election post on social media on Wednesday, the lobbying group congratulated Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-New York) for the “resounding victories for their caucuses.” The lawmakers are currently poised to lead the House and Senate when the new Congress begins in January, and are two of Israel’s staunchest defenders in Congress and major allies of AIPAC.

But the sands are quickly shifting under their feet. Opposing Israel and AIPAC have become increasingly normalized positions for politicians as the public overwhelmingly rejects the U.S.-Israel relationship, with even candidates in deep red states running against the lobbying group.

In Mississippi, for instance, Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom pledged to never take AIPAC money. He is currently holding on to a narrow lead over Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Mississippi) in their election, and, if he wins, will be the first Democratic senator elected from the state since 1989.

“I will never take a penny from AIPAC or Super PACs that don’t put Mississippi and America first,” Colom said in a post on social media last month. “This Senate seat belongs to the people of Mississippi. That’s who I’ll answer to.”