State pension payments go up each April in line with the triple lock (Image: Getty)
The future of the triple lock is in doubt with experts questioning how long it could realistically last. The policy has delivered sizeable pay increases for pensioners in recent years, including a record 10.1 per cent uplift back in April 2023.
The triple lock policy guarantees that the state pension rises each April in line with the highest of three measures. These are a bottom rate of 2.5 per cent, the rise in average earnings or inflation.
But with the costs of the policy jumping up each year, some policy experts warn it can only last so much longer. Labour has committed to keeping the triple lock in place for the rest of this Parliament.
Triple lock changes
Yet with the current political turmoil and a new Prime Minister coming in soon, things are very much up in the air. Kate Smith, head of Pensions at wealth firm Aegon, said: “It’s unlikely that we’re see any changes to the state pension triple lock during this parliamentary session.”
She was asked when we could see a political party come out and call time on the policy. Ms Smith said: “As the nation’s finances become increasingly squeezed, we expect the political parties to start to begin to address its long-term future and may commit to a review in their party-political manifestos as we get closer to the next General Election, due in 2029.”
One party that has nailed its colours to the mast is Reform UK. The group led by Nigel Farage pledged in April to “protect Britain’s pensions” and keep the triple lock in place, by cutting other Government spending on benefits and foreign aid.
Back during the General Election campaign in 2024, the Conservatives set out a policy to have a ‘triple lock plus’, where the personal allowance for pensioners would rise each year in line with the triple lock figure too, to ensure state pensioners do not pay income tax on their payments.
In a similar vein, Labour is bringing in a policy so that those whose only income is the state pension without increments, do not have to pay income tax. The precise details of how this will work have yet to be announced, but it will need to be in place by April 2027, when the full new state pension will rise above the personal allowance and attract an income tax bill.
Ms Smith said of the triple lock question: “This is a highly politically charged debate, and I expect all political parties to tread carefully, but with an ageing population it’s one that needs to be addressed.” A key concern with the population becoming older is that there will be fewer taxpayers to pay into the system, to cover the state pension bill for a rising number of claimants.
State pension changes underway
One change to the state pension rules is underway to effectively restrict how much you get. The state pension age is currently rising from 66 to 67, moving up in stages between April 2026 and April 2028.
Legislation has also been approved for another increase, from 67 to 68, between 2044 and 2046, and there has been discussion of bringing forward this timetable. Labour announced in 2025 there would be another review of the state pension age.
An independent report will be prepared by Dr Suzy Morrissey, with the Government to then look at her recommendations.
