A recent Pew Research poll suggests many voters are basing their midterm votes on which candidates will oppose Trump.
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Perhaps sensing that Republicans are likely to fare poorly in this year’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump sought to distance himself from blame in an interview late last week.
Speaking to Punchbowl News in an interview that aired on Friday, Trump deflected any responsibility for Republicans’ poor polling numbers, instead claiming that voters were mad at GOP lawmakers or candidates rather than him.
“They’re angry at Republicans. But they’re not angry at me. They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans,” Trump said.
Earlier last week, Trump also rejected the premise that his personal polling numbers demonstrated that most Americans were upset with his job performance.
“My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
“Don’t believe the Radical Left’s Fake Poll numbers. They are Crooked and Corrupt,” he added, providing no link or source for his “real” numbers.
Several surveys have indeed indicated that most Americans are upset with Trump, that more voters intend to support Democrats this fall than Republicans, and that, for a significant segment of the voting populace, their ballot choices will be motivated by Trump’s presidential performance.
In late July, a CNN/SSRS poll found that only 34 percent of Americans approved of how Trump has handled his presidency, while 66 percent disapproved. An Economist/YouGov poll published last week saw similar numbers, with only 36 percent approving of Trump’s job as president and 60 percent disapproving.
As of Monday, Trump’s net approval rating is at -19.1 percent, according to an average of polls collected by RealClearPolling.
On whom voters prefer to win the midterm races this fall, Democrats currently lead by 7 points over Republicans, according to RealClearPolling. Notably, that 7-point figure is close to the figure that was calculated by the website near the end of the 2018 midterm campaign season, when Democrats won both houses of Congress during Trump’s first term.
A Pew Research poll in July also demonstrates that voters are picking congressional candidates, at least in part, based on whether they support or oppose Trump. Within that survey, 42 percent of registered voters said their vote will be based somewhat on opposing the president and his agenda, while only 22 percent said their vote would be based on supporting him. (Thirty five percent claim that Trump will not be a factor in how they vote.)
Much can change between now and November. However, historically speaking, during midterm election years, voters have largely made up their minds in the months preceding Election Day. In 2022, 68 percent of voters said they had decided who they would vote for in that year’s races before October. Sixty-three percent said the same in the 2018 midterm season.
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