Ministers and senior civil servants have warned that sections of the UK government are at risk of hitting a standstill amid the growing likelihood of a Labour leadership contest.
Government figures have expressed concern a contest could overshadow Starmer’s agenda and key initiatives, including the push for closer UK relations with the EU.
Worries have grown in particular over the last few days, after Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham confirmed his intention to seek a return to Westminster by running in a by-election in Makerfield.
The by-election could take place on 18 June at the earliest.
One cabinet minister told the Financial Times: “We will have months where the business of daily government will have to grind to a halt, and it will just look like limbo.
“The public aren’t going to forget this.”
Another mentioned the defence investment plan, “which is already delayed” and that they cannot see Labour sorting that “any time soon”.
However, according to reports in The Times, Starmer is set to inject an £18bn boost into defence spending to modernise armed forces infrastructure.
Sparking a race
If Burnham wins the by-election, he could then force a leadership contest, with Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary this week, previously making it clear he intends to run in any contest.
The Cabinet Office is reportedly preparing advice, which will be sent to ministers if a race begins, warning them it is customary to “observe discretion” over long-term decision-making.
One minister expressed concern over pressing ahead with reforms in their Whitehall department when a leadership contest appears likely.
But another said civil servants would be confident in pressing ahead with measures in areas including devolution and industrial strategy where there is agreement and wide support across the leading party.
However the senior official added there could be delays to policies requiring “really tricky trade-offs”, including health reforms and whether to relax the electric-vehicle mandate.
UK allies have also been keeping a close eye on Westminster turmoil, with the Japanese government concerned about possible delays to decisions in the Global Combat Air Programme to develop an advanced fighter jet if a UK leadership contest is triggered, according to one Japanese official.
The government is also in negotiations to organise a summit on the EU-UK “reset” in relations, with officials from both parties saying they did not expect plans for the summit to be derailed, but uncertainty on Starmer’s future could lead to delays.
Case for distraction
One senior civil servant said previous leadership crises showed decision-making slowed as ministers became distracted by the happenings in No 10.
Another said work in their department had “definitely slowed down” as uncertainty over the future of policy continued to build.
Other Whitehall veterans instead pinned the halt to having more to do with established drift rather than the past week’s events.
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